Escalating Global Physical Inactivity Poses Challenge to 2030 Reduction Goals

Escalating Global Physical Inactivity Poses Challenge to 2030 Reduction Goals

A recent study published in The Lancet Global Health has highlighted a worrying trend in global physical inactivity. By analyzing data from 163 countries and autonomous territories, researchers investigated the prevalence of insufficient physical activity among adults from 2000 to 2022. The findings indicate a significant rise in physical inactivity, suggesting that achieving the global health target of a 15% reduction by 2030 will be challenging.

Background on Physical Activity and Health

Physical activity is crucial for preventing non-communicable diseases, maintaining a healthy weight, and improving mental health, cognitive function, and overall physical fitness. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that adults engage in at least 150 minutes of moderate-intensity exercise or 75 minutes of vigorous activity each week. Adults who do not meet these guidelines are considered insufficiently active.

The World Health Assembly (WHA) has set a goal to reduce the prevalence of insufficient physical activity by 15% by 2030. However, achieving this target requires robust monitoring of various physical activities, including sedentary behavior, balance exercises for older adults, and muscle-strengthening activities.

Study Overview

Researchers aimed to estimate the prevalence of insufficient physical activity among adults aged 18 and older across 197 countries and territories from 2000 to 2022. The study used data from population-level surveys, which included individual-level anonymized data and summary statistics from different domains such as work, travel, and leisure.

A Bayesian hierarchical model was employed to estimate the prevalence of insufficient physical activity by country, year, age, and sex. This model adjusted for survey design, urban representation, and variability in questionnaire types, with obesity prevalence included as a covariate. The results were aggregated globally, regionally, and by income group.

The study also projected trends to 2030 to assess progress towards the WHA's target. Bayesian credible intervals were used to calculate uncertainty, and posterior probabilities were computed to evaluate the likelihood of meeting the 2030 target.

Key Findings

The analysis included data from 507 surveys covering 163 out of 197 countries, representing 93% of the global population. Most surveys (452) were nationally representative, with high coverage in regions like high-income Asia Pacific, Oceania, and South Asia, but lower coverage in sub-Saharan Africa (61.5%).

The study revealed that almost one-third of adults worldwide were insufficiently physically active in 2022, with a global prevalence of 31.3%. The highest prevalence was observed in high-income Asia Pacific and South Asia, while the lowest was in Oceania and sub-Saharan Africa.

Women exhibited a higher prevalence of insufficient physical activity (33.8%) compared to men (28.7%), with significant variations across countries and regions. Older adults, particularly those over 60, also showed higher rates of inactivity.

From 2010 to 2022, the global prevalence of insufficient physical activity increased, with the sharpest rises in high-income Asia Pacific and South Asia. If current trends continue, the prevalence is projected to reach 34.7% by 2030, making it unlikely that the global target of a 15% reduction will be met.

Conclusions and Implications

In 2022, approximately 31.3% of adults worldwide, or 1.8 billion people, were insufficiently physically active, up from 23.4% (900 million) in 2000. This increasing trend poses a significant challenge to meeting the 2030 target. The study found that inactivity rates were higher among women and older adults, with variations by country and region.

Compared to previous WHO estimates, this analysis incorporated more surveys (507 compared to 358) and countries (163 compared to 65), revealing a global increase in physical inactivity that earlier data had not captured. Positive trends were noted in some high-income Western countries and Oceania, likely due to effective policies promoting physical activity.

However, the majority of countries are not on track to meet the 2030 target, underscoring the need for increased investment in promoting physical activity. Limitations of the study include the absence of data from some countries, potential biases in self-reporting, and data collection disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Future research should focus on strategies to engage women and older adults in physical activity, improve data collection methods (including the use of device-based measures), and address socio-economic disparities that affect physical activity levels.

This study highlights the urgent need for global and regional initiatives to counter the rising trend of physical inactivity and promote a more active lifestyle among adults worldwide.

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