Every year, around the time of the International CES
consumer technology show, it’s time to predict the future. Aside from obvious
riches and personal gain, it would be far less interesting than what truly lies
ahead. It’s simply that the future is not what it used to be. That said, there
are a few undeniable trends.
Making sense of the
numbers
According to every credible source we can find, there are
almost 3 billion people connected to the public internet right now; by 2020 the
number will approach 4 billion. According to Cisco, by 2020 there will be over
50 billion connected devices in the world. Some people like to call it the
"Internet of Things," others call it "Machine 2 Machine" or
"M2M." No matter what you call it, these are unimaginably large
numbers of people and devices all connected.
There are three laws to help understand the rate of change:
Moore's Law, the Law of Accelerating Returns, and Metcalfe's Law. Moore's Law
is named for Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Intel. He wrote a famous paper
back in 1965 where it posited that the density of semiconductors on silicon
would double every 18 months.
This was true for a while, but now, because of the Law
of Accelerating Returns (which states that the rate of technological change is
accelerating exponentially) we know that this doubling of computing power
happens much faster than that. Then there's Metcalfe's Law, which tells us that
the value of a network increases proportional to the square of the number of
users. If this all sounds too geeky, don't worry -- here's how to think about
the remarkable pace of technological change and the huge number of people in
simple terms.
1) Technology is changing at a faster and faster pace. In
fact, today is the slowest rate of technological change you will ever experience
in your life.
2) The more people are connected, the more powerful the
network becomes.
Connectivity:
everything that can be connected, will be connected
The price and size of sensor technology is falling at a
predictable rate, which tells us everything that can be connected, will be
connected. Everything. What exactly might that mean for us?
Information overload:
data is more powerful in the presence of other data
In 2015, your smartphone is still going to be the center of
your electronic universe -- and it's going to know more about you than it ever
did before. Smartphones are the central data gathering point for your
connected life and average users check them about 150 times each day. Of
course, we will see new mobile devices this year: wearables, smart cars, smart
homes, and more -- but they will all connect to and through your smartphone. So,
while in 2015 there's still an app for that, our smartphone-centric world is
temporary.
As we passively and actively interact with connected
technology, we will represent a consortium of data-gathering tools. Our
smartphones may be the centerpiece of that consortium, but we will also be
creating data with our clothing, wearable technology, smart homes, smart cars,
etc. Remember, everything that can be connected, will be connected.
Security and privacy:
everything that can be hacked, will be hacked
As we've learned from the very public hackings during the
past year (culminating in the spectacular Sony hack), there is an enhanced need
for security and privacy protocols.
From one perspective, everything that can be hacked, will be
hacked. But probably not the way you think about hacking. Breaches of
cyber-security protocols cover a wide spectrum, from Jennifer Lawrence's
socially engineered nude picture scandal to attacks by nation states using
military-grade, super-cyber weapons.
The Sony hack was not about freedom of speech, but simply
about freedom. A world where people cannot tell the difference between a
credible threat and a poorly worded email is a frightening world indeed. Take
50 of the Fortune 500 corporations and Sony-ize them. Take 10 of the biggest
world banks and do the same ... when a threatening email arrives, will you take
it seriously? This may be a more accurate vision of a post-apocalyptic
"digital" world.
Access versus
ownership: renting is up, buying is down
In short: "renting is up, buying is down." You
know the story: if you're not paying for a service with cash, the company is
using your data as a currency. This trend will continue, forcing us to learn
how to trade data the way we trade other currencies.
The "On-Demand
Economy": I want it now!
On-demand is not new -- ask anyone who has ever cared for an
infant. What is new is the speed with which the technological infrastructure to
deliver almost everything you could ask for on demand is evolving -- albeit
heterogeneously. The white space is obvious and the trend is clear:
Organizations will voraciously attempt to fulfill our every
demand (as close to instantly as possible). This is a quest for convenience
unlike any we have seen before, and it is really just beginning.
What's next?
On-demand food, shelter and transportation are obvious.
On-demand retail and services of every kind are less so, and the wildcards are
the meta-services that will evolve to make sense of our on-demand world. Remember
Moore's Law, the Law of Accelerating returns, and Metcalfe's Law. It will
happen in the virtual blink of an eye.
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